Oil dips on plenty of supply

Dhaka,  Sat,  22 July 2017
Published : 14 Jul 2017, 11:20:13
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Oil dips on ample supply despite OPEC pledge to cut output

Oil markets dipped on Friday, pulled down by high fuel inventories and improving industry efficiency, but were still on track for a solid weekly gain.

Brent crude futures LCOc1, the international benchmark for oil prices, were down 7 cents, or 0.1 per cent, at $48.35 per barrel at 0443 GMT (12:43 a.m. ET), but up 3.5 per cent for the week.

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures CLc1 were at $45.97 per barrel, down 11 cents, or 0.2 per cent, but up around 4 per cent over the week.

Crude prices are around levels in late November last year, when a group of oil producers including Russia and Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) pledged to withhold around 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) of output between January this year and March 2018 to tighten the market.

"OPEC compliance with production cuts slipped to 98 per cent in June, but more importantly output from exempt (from cutting)members Libya and Nigeria is currently about 700,000 bpd higher than at the time of the November OPEC agreement, offsetting about 60 per cent of the OPEC cuts. The growth in US production over the same time negates the remainder," US investment bank Jefferies said.

US oil production C-OUT-T-EIA has risen by more than 10 per cent over the past year to 9.4 million bpd.

Oil analysts at research and brokerage firm Sanford C. Bernstein said that global oil stocks remain high.

"For the first half of 2017, OECD inventories are likely to finish higher, rather than lower ... The most plausible explanation is that OPEC compliance has been not as high as has been suggested," Bernstein said.

"OPEC will have to cut deeper and for longer if it wants to eliminate the inventory overhang and prices to rise," Bernstein said.

It added that the upside for oil prices looked limited even if OPEC took more action due to high US shale production.

Goldman Sachs said that the crude oil price outlook remained weak, largely due to rising cost efficiency from US shale drillers.

"We see potential for shale to break even at $45 ... (and) we see $45-$55 per barrel annual WTI range," the US investment bank said. 

 
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