SINGAPORE, Nov 21 (Bloomberg): Indian rice imports next year will create a "fairly major swing" in global trade and push prices higher, commodities supplier Olam International Limited said.

The South Asian nation may import 2 million to 3 million metric tonnes, Sunny Verghese, chief executive officer of Singapore-based Olam, which trades commodities including rice, coffee and sugar, said Friday. India will export 1.5 million tonnes next year, compared with an average of 4.5 million tonnes from 2002 to 2008, according to US Department of Agriculture figures.

Recent floods in the country's south may slash the next harvest, which starts in January, pushing imports to as high as 5 million tonnes, Tejinder Narang, a commodities analyst and former director of PEC Ltd, an Indian state-owned agricultural trader, said in a phone interview from New Delhi Friday.

A swing from 4.5 million tonnes of exports to as much as 3 million tonnes of imports can have "a very important effect on the price direction," Verghese said in a Bloomberg Television interview. "Prices are likely to firm given these latest developments."

Prices may also extend gains if a "strong" El Nino weather phenomenon, which is forming in the Pacific and can parch crops in Asia, affects producing countries, Verghese said.

India hasn't been a net rice importer for two decades, while the Philippines may buy a record 2.45 million tonnes in tenders for 2010 supplies before the end of the year, boosting competition for supplies and driving prices higher. The global rice trade is estimated to be 29.5 million tonnes next year, according to the USDA.

The regional benchmark export price for 100 per cent grade-B Thai rice has gained 6.9 per cent to $561 from this year's low of $525 in October. It reached a record $1,038 a tonne in May 2008 as concerns over supply shortages prompted countries including India and Vietnam to curb exports, sparking food price riots across the globe.

India, the world's second-largest grower and consumer of rice, lost 18 per cent of its crop to drought and is in talks with Thailand and Vietnam, the two biggest exporters, to buy rice, Farm Minister Anand Sharma said November 17. India is seeking as much as 2 million tonnes of rice, Thailand's Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva said November 18.

India's total rice harvest may drop to 69.45 million tonnes, from a record 84.58 million tonnes last year, the farm ministry has said.

The country's next harvest, which begins in January, may plunge to 12 million tonnes, from 15 million tonnes a year earlier, Narang said.

That could lower the nation's stockpiles to a "critical level" of 950,000 tonnes by October 2010, equal to just four days of the nation's needs, if the government decides not to import, he said.

Indian government policy requires state food agencies to maintain a total stockpile of 5.2 million tonnes to ensure the nation's food security, Narang said.