Mahmudur Rahman

In the middle of last year when the economic recession began to kick in, the World Food Programme (WFP) had warned that food grains were likely to be in short supply over the next few years mainly due to bad harvests, natural calamities and a growing number of mouths to feed. It had also warned that the days of cheap food was over. Like most news, these comments made the headlines and then were, as these warnings usually are, sidetracked by more so-called 'pressing issues'. Well the news is that it's back to haunt everyone.

Asia, the home to the burgeoning world population has once again come under the spotlight in the light of the growing pinch of short supply of food grain. This time round, a drought that has hit cropping in half of India means that the huge country will now need to resource a lot of its requirement from abroad. Where 'abroad' is, is the pertinent question given that not too much news has emerged about surplus production around the world.

Bangladesh has been hit by a late monsoon meaning the quality and yield of the Aman crop will be much lower than anticipated, this too may require food imports. According to the WFP, 65 million people-just under half of the country's population are struggling to find two meals a day. In 2008 alone, the number increased by 7.5 million. And the problem is that this is likely to get worse rather than better. On the other hand, given the devastation that nature has unleashed in the Philippines and elsewhere in Asia, the race for import of scantily available crops is one where first come first served may not work and diplomacy may have to be strong and vigorous. It will also depend on how well Myanmar has recovered from the cyclone of a year and something back and how much Thailand and Vietnam has increased its yield and cultivation.

Matters are being made worse by disenchanted and disillusioned farmers losing interest in farming. Their offspring are fed up as with issues relating to the availability of fertiliser and its prices as well as the return on labour and their investment to the extent that they are willing to hazard the vagaries and uncertainty of city or expatriate life rather than go through what their parents do.

Unfortunately, even now the focus appears to be more on how to relieve the suffering of the end-consumer rather than the producer in media, seminars and talk shows. The forecast is for a 70% increase in food grain output to meet the growing world population by 2050. The way Bangladesh's is increasing and the availability of land is diminishing for crop production, some clear, long term solutions need to be worked out. It is a precarious balance that unless managed properly may result in dire consequences.



The writer is a former head of corporate and regulatory affairs, British American Tobacco, Bangladesh and former chief executive officer of Bangladesh Cricket Board.