US sees no holiday cheer; Russia, China warn of grim 2009

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WASHINGTON, Dec 25 (AFP): US data yesterday offered few signs of recovery from the economic malaise while Russia and China issued stark warnings about the impact of the financial crisis on their countries.

Crude oil prices fell to fresh four-year lows as markets bet on a deep downturn.

In Washington, the Commerce Department reported personal income contracted 0.2 percent in November from the previous month while consumption expenditures shrank 0.6 percent, in a further sign of consumer retrenchment as Americans prepared for the Christmas holiday.

But Ryan Sweet at Economy.com said that because prices are falling, real, inflation-adjusted spending increased 0.6 percent -- "its first increase since May and its largest in two years," which he called "encouraging."

"The increase in real spending is a positive for fourth quarter real GDP (gross domestic product), which could post its largest decline since the early 1980s," he added.

"That said, the increase in real spending is due to declining prices as opposed to stronger consumption. Therefore, real spending is sending a false signal on the strength of underlying consumption."

On the labor front, a separate report showed new US weekly jobless claims rose by 30,000 over the past week to 586,000.

"The jobless claims data show further significant weakening in the economy last week," said John Ryding at RDQ Economics, who predicted a rise in unemployment to 7.0 percent for December.

A top official in Moscow warned that the crisis could spark popular unrest after a Kremlin economic aide said Russia next year would have its first budget deficit since the 1998 financial crisis.

Japan meanwhile approved a record-high budget aimed at avoiding the worst effects of the crisis.

"We need to take unprecedented measures when in an extraordinary economic situation," Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso said at a news conference after his cabinet backed the new 980 billion dollar budget.





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